# Time Series Data Processing and Modeling

## Summary

The availability of large quantity of cheap sensors brought forth by the so called “Internet of Things” has resulted in an explosion of the amounts of time varying data. Understanding how to mine, process and analyze such data will only to become an ever more important skill in any data scientists toolkit.

In this lecture, we will work through the entire process of how to analyze and model time series data, how to detect and extract trend and seasonality effects and how to implement the ARIMA class of forecasting models. Both real and synthetic datasets will be used to illustrate the different kinds of models and their underlying assumptions.

## Program

**Understanding Timeseries**Empirical Examples

Trends

Seasons and Cycles

**Processing Timeseries data**Timeseries transformations (diff, lag, sqrt, etc)

Resampling/fill methods

Bootstrapping/Jacknife

Autocorrelations and Partial Autocorrelation Function

Correlations of 2 timeseries

**Random Walks**White noise

Drift

Smoothing/Rolling window

Fast-Fourier Transform

**ARIMA Models**Auto-regressive models (AR)

Moving Averages (MA)

Fitting ARIMA models

Seasonal ARIMA models